Business projection

Kos-kosan CAGR Scenarios

A plain-language comparison of Indonesian kos-kosan returns against Bitcoin CAGR, starting with the simple idea before the charts.

ELI5

English and Indonesian explanation

English

CAGR is the average yearly growth rate. If an investment grows at 8% CAGR, it means we pretend the growth was smooth every year, even though real life goes up and down.

For kos-kosan, the money can grow in two ways: rent collected from tenants and the property becoming more valuable. In Indonesia right now, property prices are not rising fast, so rent matters more.

Compared with Bitcoin, kos-kosan is slower. Bitcoin's 10-year CAGR is about 57%, while the kos base case is 8%. But kos-kosan can produce monthly cash flow; Bitcoin depends on price appreciation.

Bahasa Indonesia

CAGR itu rata-rata pertumbuhan per tahun. Kalau investasi tumbuh 8% CAGR, artinya kita membayangkan pertumbuhannya rata setiap tahun, walaupun kenyataannya bisa naik turun.

Untuk kos-kosan, uang bertumbuh dari dua sumber: uang sewa penghuni dan kenaikan nilai properti. Di Indonesia saat ini, harga properti residensial tidak naik kencang, jadi sewa adalah mesin utamanya.

Dibanding Bitcoin, kos-kosan jauh lebih lambat. CAGR Bitcoin 10 tahun sekitar 57%, sedangkan base case kos 8%. Tapi kos-kosan bisa memberi arus kas bulanan; Bitcoin bergantung pada kenaikan harga.

Projection chart

What Rp100M becomes: kos-kosan vs Bitcoin

The dashed Bitcoin lines use historical BTC CAGR windows. They are not forecasts, but they show the opportunity-cost benchmark.

million rupiah
Line chart comparing kos-kosan CAGR scenarios and Bitcoin historical CAGR windows from 2026 to 2036.
Why these rates

Evidence anchors behind the scenarios

Public data does not publish a clean kos-kosan CAGR index, so the model triangulates from property appreciation, rental yield, and kos-specific payback examples.

Bar chart showing residential price growth, rental yields, kos payback implied yield, and rent escalation guidance.
1-3%
Property price growthRecent Indonesia residential appreciation is low. Capital gain should not carry the model.
7-8%
Rental yield benchmarkGross rental yield data makes income the real engine of the return.
~8%
Kos example yieldA published 10-room kos example implies about 8.1% yield at full occupancy before deeper capex/tax adjustments.
5-10%
Rent increase potentialAnnual rent increases can support upside, but only if occupancy and local demand hold.
Bitcoin comparison

Kos-kosan CAGR vs Bitcoin CAGR

Bitcoin is the benchmark that makes the opportunity cost visible. The comparison uses FRED's Coinbase BTC/USD daily series ending 2026-06-20.

Bar chart comparing 8 percent kos-kosan base CAGR against Bitcoin 5-year, 4-year, and 10-year historical CAGR.
Short version Kos-kosan base case is about income stability. Bitcoin is the growth benchmark, but with much higher volatility and no monthly rent.
Important nuance BTC 5-year CAGR is only about 12.5%, close enough that a strong kos operator can look competitive. BTC 10-year CAGR is in another league at about 57.1%.
Family explanation Kos-kosan is like a cash-flow asset. Bitcoin is like a volatile growth asset. They answer different questions.
Research notes

Sources and assumptions

Scenario rates are estimates for visualization, not financial advice. Kos-kosan lines are forward scenarios; Bitcoin lines use historical CAGR windows as opportunity-cost benchmarks. They exclude debt/leverage, transaction costs, income tax details, vacancy shocks, furniture refreshes, and major renovation cycles.

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